Calculator

The four numbers that describe the current round — depth, rarity, share price, and expected wait — from live pool data, plus a what-if calculator. Scorekeeping, never a forecast.

⛏ Pot Math the four numbers that describe this round — scorekeeping, not forecasting vs ~21h ago ▲ up ▼ down

Round depth

1.51×

This pot: 1.51× an average round (66.2% luck).

▲ +0.05× 24h

Round rarity

22.1%

~22.1% of rounds get this deep — about 1 in 5. Normal.

▼ −1.2% 24h

Share price

1,115 sats/G

Pays ~1,115 sats per G of banked work right now (subsidy only).

▼ −40 24h

Expected wait

64d 12h

At 97.30 PH/s live, ~64d to a block (1D avg 200.11 PH/s → ~31d).

▲ +1d 1h 24h

W 190.65T work since last block ▲ +6.65T 24h · D 126.23T needed ▼ −0.17T 24h → 126.23T next retarget · H 97.30 PH/s live ▼ −1.70 24h · 1D 200.11 · 6D 143.43 · 9D 153.23 PH/s

The key & formulas

W — total work since the last block (T). Resets to 0 when the pool finds a block.
D — minimum needed diff = network difficulty (T).
H — pool hashrate (PH/s): live gauge, plus 1D/6D/9D averages.
Round depth = W ÷ D = 190.65 ÷ 126.23 = 1.51×
Round rarity = e^−W/D = 22.1% (~1 in 5)
Share price = 212,500 ÷ W_(T) = 1,115 sats/G (subsidy only)
Work / block = D · 2³² ÷ 86,400 ÷ 10¹⁵ = 6,275 PHd
Expected wait = (Work / block) ÷ H = 64d 12h @ 97.30 PH/s

Trend pills compare each figure with the poll sample nearest ~24h ago. Direction only — a deeper pot doesn’t make the next block any likelier. When the pool finds a block mid-window the pot resets, so W-based numbers show ↻ new pot instead of a delta.

Want to run your own numbers? Open the calculator below · look up live pool stats →

Where this pot sits 📏

Round depth = W / D = 1.51×. Rarity = e^−W/D = 22% — the share of average rounds that run at least this deep. The marker is this pot right now.

50%23%10%5% 1.51×▼

← shallower (found quick) · deeper (overdue) → markers show the depth at which only 50 / 23 / 10 / 5% of rounds run this long.

These numbers are SCOREKEEPING, not forecasting. Mining is memoryless: the pot being deep does not make the next block more likely. Anyone saying "we're due" is describing the past, not the future.

🧮 Open the calculator — run your own what-if numbers

Pot Math — this round

Enter the pot's work (W), network difficulty (D), and pool hashrate (H) — today's live values are prefilled. Then drop in your own banked work this round to see your cut if the pot cracked right now.

W — work since last block (T)

D — minimum needed diff (T)

H — pool hashrate (PH/s)

Your work this round (T)

Round depth

–

W / D

Round rarity

–

P(round ≥ W) = e^(−W/D)

Share price

–

212,500 / W · subsidy only

Expected wait

–

at H

💰 Your stake in this pot

–

enter your work this round (T) to see your cut

Rental strategy & odds

How much hash, for how long, at what cost — and what are your real odds? Live hashprice: 49,801 sats/PHd.

Hashrate (PH/s)

Duration (hours)

…or budget (sats)

…or work directly (PHd)

What you get

Work

–

PHd of shares

Cost @ live hashprice

–

sats

🥑 10T share (Bravocado)

–

P(≥1) · 1 per 500 PHd

🏠 21T share (homeminers)

–

P(≥1) · 1 per 1050 PHd

🎰 Block

–

P(≥1) · 1 per 6300 PHd @127T

Best diff (expected)

–

~1–1.5× total work

Steady vs moonshot

Your odds depend only on total PHd — not on how you buy it. A slow-and-steady order and a short moonshot of the same PHd have identical expected odds. The difference is variance: the moonshot swings harder (bigger chance of nothing, bigger chance of a monster), steady grinds toward the average. "It's all about total hashes."

The KMH 48-hour rule

On Kiss My Hash, orders of 48h or more lock in your price and delivered hash; under 48h you take whatever the market gives ("pray"). Parasite's Refinery is pay-as-you-go either way. Duration doesn't change your odds for a given PHd — it changes cost certainty. Set duration ≥ 48h above to see the lock-in flag.

P(≥1 hit in W PHd) = 1 − e^−W/rate. Long-run probabilities, not promises. Not financial advice.

Is renting worth it right now? 💸

Raw hashvalue: one PHd of pool work is worth 49,801 sats — a block's reward (3.125 BTC subsidy, no tx fees) spread across the 6,275 PHd it takes to find a block at today's difficulty (D=126.2T). Hold that up against what the Refinery actually charges.

Break-even hashprice

49,801

sats/PHd · block reward ÷ work per block

Live Refinery hashprice

49,801

sats/PHd · what you pay right now

Verdict 🟡

100%

near parity — roughly fair value · live is 100% of break-even

This is the raw hashvalue — it ignores variance and pot-sharing, so it isn't your expected payout, just whether a PHd is priced above or below what it earns on average. Subsidy only; folding in mempool fees would nudge break-even up a little. Not financial advice.

Odds of a block within… ⏱

At the current expected wait of 64d 12h per block (D=126.2T, H=97 PH/s), here's P(≥1 block) over each window = 1 − e^{−t/expected}.

Within 1 hour

0.06%

P(≥1 block)

Within 6 hours

0.39%

P(≥1 block)

Within 24 hours

1.5%

P(≥1 block)

Within 3 days

4.5%

P(≥1 block)

Within 7 days

10.3%

P(≥1 block)

Memoryless: these are probabilities, not predictions. A deep pot does not make the next block likelier — the odds above depend only on hashrate and difficulty, never on how long it's been. Scorekeeping, not forecasting.

Cado & block pace at a hashrate ⚡

Drop in a hashrate to see the long-run pace it produces — 10T cados per day, blocks per day, and your slice of the pool this round. Prefilled with the live pool hashrate (97 PH/s).

Hashrate (PH/s)

🥑 10T cados / day

–

H ÷ 500 PHd per cado

🎰 Blocks / day

–

H ÷ 6300 PHd per block

🏁 Your finder odds this round

–

H ÷ pool 97 PH/s

One PH/s sustained for one day is one PHd of work, so a day's pace is just PH/s ÷ the PHd-per-hit rate. Finder odds = your share of pool hashrate if a block landed while you're running. Long-run averages, not a schedule.

The luck audit 🔬

The claim to beat: one 10T+ share is expected per ~500 PHd of pool work, everywhere, at every hour. If any hour-of-day / day-of-week bucket sustainedly beats that, there's a method — and it'll glow below. Expectation is a flat, boring ~100%.

Share quality by hour × weekday (UTC)

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat

Colour = average best-difficulty-per-hashrate in that bucket, relative to the global mean. below · ~expected · above (a signal) · low sample.

Totals

Samples analysed

2,959

Pool work observed

22.7k PHd

Expected 10T hits

45.5

at 1-in-500 PHd

Sample is getting meaningful. A truly flat map is the honest, expected result; a persistent bright cell would be the interesting one.

Method & caveats: best-diff-since-block is cumulative within a pot cycle, so this is a proxy, not a per-share hit count. It surfaces a sustained hour/day bias if one exists, not its absence. Judge the trend, not a single cell. Not financial advice.

W = "Total Work Since Last Block" and D = "Minimum Needed Diff" (network difficulty), both in T — exactly as labelled on parasite.space. Because W and D share a unit, depth is just their ratio. W resets to 0 the moment the pool finds a block. Share price excludes transaction fees (subsidy only).

data fresh · pool last ok 1s ago